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Jonathan Simon, one of America’s leading election integrity experts, asks: “What happens when a dangerous and serial liar like Donald Trump blunders onto an inconvenient and disruptive truth? The truth Trump is inadvertently pointing to is not that elections in the United States are rigged, but that our privatized, electronic vote counting system is unobservable and incapable of proving that it is not rigged. This is a true crisis for American democracy.”
I interviewed Jonathan Simon before and immediately after the 2020 election. How have his views on the national crisis of confidence around Trump v. Biden developed since then? Listen and find out.
Here are two charts illustrating his findings suggesting the 2020 election was rigged for down-ticket Republicans:
The House
“The first systemic anomaly to emerge on post-mortem was that, of 27 U.S. House contests rated as ‘tossups’ by the Cook Political Report and The New York Times, Republicans were victorious in all 27. Assuming tossup equates to a 50-50 chance, a penny flip, the probability of such an outcome would be less than one in 100 million…Virtually all these contests, being highly competitive, were heavily polled by a variety of different polling outfits across the political spectrum (though most were regarded as politically neutral), using a variety of methodologies and sampling techniques.”
“We can also view these competitive House contests in terms of the red (or blue) shift and identify which ones ‘flipped’ from predicted outcomes and by how much. The chart on page 4 below presents the contests that flipped from blue (prediction) to red (outcome) and the single contest, in Georgia, that flipped from red to blue. The CDs are ranked from highest to lowest red shift; the right-hand column shows the expected Democratic win percentage and the left-hand column the principal equipment in use. The asymmetry is clear enough and the correlation of Election Systems & Software (ES&S) equipment with the most egregious red shifts worth noting.”
